Increasing returns to adoption imply that technology trajectories are characterized by

In the 1970s, the environmentalist movements supported the thesis that the acceleration of technical change was the main cause of the rapid decline in environmental quality and the depletion of natural resources. This perception has been gradually replaced by a more qualified view which acknowledges the dual nature of the impact of technology on the environment (Foray and Grübler, 1996). It is generally not disputed that technical progress has some negative impacts, but it is more widely accepted today that technical progress can also play a decisive role in alleviating the environmental constraint. Efforts are thus being concentrated on the acceleration and reorientation of technical change, considered as prerequisites to the emergence of new environment-friendly technologies to replace existing technologies.

In the long run, the transition to a new technico-economic paradigm which is more favourable to the environment (Kemp and Soete, 1992) seems inevitable. However, this development will be slow and gradual, due to the resistance to change imposed by existing technological trajectories.1 The reinforcing mechanisms and path dependency properties which characterise the dynamics of the trajectories tend to reinforce the established technologies and, conversely, slow down the development of new technologies which, not yet widely diffused, have not been able to benefit from the same positive feedback loops.

The purpose of this article is to characterise the conditions of this transition to new technological trajectories in the residential lighting sector. The aim is to identify the mechanisms which enable an existing technology to resist the competing pressure of a potentially superior new technology and to gain insight into the conditions which will enable the new technology to finally emerge and become established.

Since its invention by Edison, the incandescent lamp had been characterised by a technological monopoly in the residential lighting sector. However, from the end of the 1980s, it had to compete with a new lighting technology: the compact fluorescent lamp (CFL). Based on the principle of fluorescence, this lamp is far superior in terms of luminous efficiency and working life to the incandescent lamp. Even so, the diffusion of this technology met — and is still meeting — with considerable difficulties in trying to compete with an established technology which has benefitted from a long learning process, considerable economies of scale in production and a multitude of positive network externalities (wide distribution network, technological interrelatedness, increasing informational returns, etc.).

Of course, the existence of increasing returns does not automatically lead to an irreversible technological “lock-in”, and Arthur (1989)himself has drawn attention to this point. A technological breakthrough (electronic watches, for example), the introduction of regulatory constraints (elimination of CFCs in refrigerators because of their effect on the ozone layer) or a change in user preferences can result in the disappearance of an established technology in favour of a new one, even though the first may be benefiting from increasing returns. But, in the present case, a technological breakthrough, accompanied by a favourable development of the selection environment, is not enough to guarantee the success of a technological innovation, in a situation where consumer preferences have been permanently influenced by the existing technology. Public policies play a decisive complementary role in the creation and gradual expansion of niche markets, which, through learning mechanisms, facilitate improvement of product performance and adaptation to demand. Finally, while overcoming the “lock-in” situation should lead to the creation of a new technological monopoly, the present study shows that it may lead to an increase in variety because of a segmentation of product usage.

The first part of the paper examines the mechanisms of trajectory domination by the incandescent lamp in the residential sector (Section 2). In the second part, an analysis is presented of the modifications to the selection environment which have encouraged companies to innovate in the context of a strong competitive regime (Section 3). This is followed by a discussion of the creation process of the new technology, in an environment where there is competition with the existing technology (Section 4). The role of public policies is highlighted, with the influence of the creation of niche markets on the triggering of increasing returns to adoption (Section 5). Finally, a detailed discussion is presented on the hypothesis of recreating a technological monopoly based on the new trajectory, which does not seem to correspond to the increase in technological variety which can be observed in this sector (Section 6).

A dominant technological trajectory: incandescent lighting in the residential sector

The invention of the incandescent lamp by Thomas Edison at the end of the 19th century laid the foundations for the development of the technological trajectory of incandescent lighting, still dominant today in the residential sector. The performance of this first lamp was not particularly convincing, but further research efforts were made to bring about improvements prior to starting production on an industrial scale. A long series of improvements was then required before the product took on

Changes in the selection environment as a stimulus for technical development

The oil crises of the 1970s highlighted the interest of technological options which might be more expensive to purchase but, because of their low energy consumption, would be less costly to use. In the lighting sector, the dominant firms saw the opportunity for strengthening their position through an offensive technological strategy. On the basis of technological innovations achieved in fluorescence, research efforts were concentrated on designing a new lamp for the residential sector with more

The initial technological competition between the incandescent lamp and the CFL

The problems of diffusing the CFL in the residential lighting sector stemmed essentially from a situation where an old technology benefiting from increasing returns to adoption is capable of resisting the introduction of a new technology, despite the advantages of the latter and despite the fact that there were no more avenues open for improving the previously existing technology (Foray, 1989).

Several factors helped slow down its diffusion. First, as Rosenberg (1976)observed, “most inventions

Start of the learning process in the domestic lighting segment

Despite increasing awareness of its use in the service sector, diffusion of the CFL in the residential market remained extremely restricted in the 1980s. For the domestic consumer, there were numerous constraints to adopting this technology, in particular the selling price, but also the lack of information, incompatibility with existing lamps and light fixtures, apprehension about a technical innovation, habits and preferences, and so on.

The new technology could not benefit from any of the main

Toward a new “lock-in” or the emergence of a lasting technological variety?

The technological domination of incandescent lighting in the residential sector, previously facilitated by the existence of increasing returns to adoption (technological learning, economies of scale, etc.), is today challenged by a new lighting technology with better performance characteristics in certain respects. Is the wider diffusion of the CFL and the gradual challenge to the dominant position of incandescent technology in the residential sector likely to result in the disappearance of the

Conclusion

The competition between technologies to meet lighting needs in the residential sector confirms the classic scenario of the problems encountered in diffusing a new, promising technology in a space occupied by a technology which has considerably benefited from cumulative learning effects and economies of scale. In the absence of these same benefits, diffusion of the new CFL technology has been slow and the products have run the risk of being completely withdrawn from the residential market. Its

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  Compact fluorescent lighting (CFLs) and halogens, with significantly better energy efficiency compared to incandescent lighting were already commercially available by the 1990s, but household adoption was slow to take off. The slow uptake was shaped by the higher relative purchase price of CFLs (although full lifetime costs were lower (Menanteau and Lefebvre, 2000)), but also because cheaper CFLs imported from Chinese firms (Khan and Abas, 2011) jarred with consumer expectations about desirable ‘qualities’ of light because they were perceived as ‘cold’, unreliable, slow to become bright, unattractively shaped and incompatible with existing fittings (Wall and Crosbie, 2009; Monreal Clark et al., 2015). Government support for low energy lighting initially involved information campaigns and small-scale give-aways, but these had very little effect on voluntary acquisition (Martinot and Borg, 1998).

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